14th February 2023
The negotiations for the final shape of Brexit continue, even though the United Kingdom departed the European Union three years ago.
Of course: it would have been more sensible to have concluded these negotiations before the United Kingdom departed (as some of us pointed out at the time), but both the United Kingdom and the European Union wanted to press on and get the formal departure over with as soon as possible.
But the price of that speed has been a lack of finality.
The current news reports indicate that a deal may be on the offing about the dispute over the Northern Irish Protocol.
You may recall that this dispute was once so urgent that the United Kingdom government, with a straight face if not a straight bat, maintained last year that its envisaged domestic legislation that would enable the United Kingdom to breach the protocol even met the test of “necessity” under international law.
That was balderdash, as anyone sensible at the time knew – and it is no surprise that the enabling legislation has been frozen.
The one sticking point appears to be something that is both fundamental and trivial: the role of the European Court of Justice.
Fundamental because, to the extent that the laws of the European Union apply in respect of Northern Ireland being inside the single market, the European Union understandably want those laws to be interpreted in accordance with the European Union treaties and consistently across the single market.
And the only entity that can ensure such authoritative and consistent interpretations is the European Court of Justice, for that is what that court does.
But for Brexiters this smacks of the European Court of Justice having jurisdiction in Northern Ireland, which it should not have, because of Brexit.
And it is also trivial, because few other than obsessives care and in practice it would not make much difference.
Given all this, there will be some fancy choreography and packaging.
What will probably happen is that the substance of European Union laws being applied in accordance with the European Court of Justice’s jurisprudence will be maintained, but it will somehow look as if this is not the case.
The reason for such a compromise is that Brexit and completely open trade borders on the island of Ireland are not ultimately compatible – they never have been, and never will be.
And this predicament of the Irish border – although obvious – was not thought through by those who clamoured for Brexit.
Other problems may be addressed – if not resolved – by the establishment of “lanes” and the use of technical “real time” data.
However, getting the two sides to a sort-of-agreement is one thing, getting the endorsement of the United Kingdom parliament is another.
And unless the deal can be framed as a great British victory (and Brexiters swallow this) then either the deal will not pass parliament or the passage of the deal relies on opposition support and thereby breaks (further) the governing party.
No wonder the Prime Minister’s circle are making noises about quitting the European Convention on Human Rights and persisting with its daft legislation on repealing retained European Union law.
The Prime Minister needs all the distractions he can muster, as getting this deal past his own backbenchers is not going to be easy.
And we may even end up – as with 2017 and 2019 – with the run-up to a general election being dominated by parliamentary splits and rebellions over the question of Brexit.
Brace brace.
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