26th March 2026
The choking of the Strait of Hormuz and an unwanted regime change in Iran mean Trump cannot simply walk away
There is a proverb about what is the difference between a clever person and a wise person.
A clever person can get themselves out of situations that a wise person would not have got into.
(There are other answers, but this is the best.)
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Political history provides many examples of leaders who, on the way up, are savvy and cautious but when corrupted by power become over-confident and reckless.
In this way, hubris often tends to be visited by Nemesis.
Not always: there will be those like Tito or Stalin or Franco who remain careful with absolute power so as not to expose themselves to the risk of downfall: the price of tyranny, like of liberty, is eternal vigilance.
But with President Trump, who has so often created uncertain situations for others to deal with while he invariably moves on, his usual streetwise cunning seems to have departed him with the attack on Iran.
And so he has created a situation out of which he cannot get.
Iran now has nothing to lose with choking the Strait of Hormuz. There is nothing currently which Trump can do with with either bluster or bullying to get the strait re-opened as before.
And – as this is a blog about polities – the state in Iran has reconfigured. There has been regime change, but not to the United States’s advantage.
As this outstanding piece in the Economist explains, the military-political leadership in Iran has fragmented and decentralised. There is thereby nobody with overall control, just disconnected and local forces with only loose central direction.
As such, there is also effectively nobody for Trump to bluster or bully.
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The United States attack on Iran is almost a perfect model of stupidity, to place alongside the Pyrrhic victory or the marches on Moscow.
And even if Trump tries now to move on, the Strait of Hormuz will still be choked and there will be deep, lasting instability in the region.
So we have a contradiction between what Trump wants to do and what he cannot do. He wants to walk away, but this is one mess he cannot escape.
A wise person would not have got into this situation, and it is now a situation a clever (or at least cunning) person cannot get out of.
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Though Trump may well believe he can distract his way out of this again. Move onto Cuba, saying the Strait of Hormuz is the problem of the countries that directly rely on it, and they’re to blame for high gas prices, fertiliser shortages, etc. Who around him is going to tell him different?
The regime has been bent, but mostly have not different people moved into the existing offices? It may be a more durable one than the USA currently is (as opposed to should be).
I do suspect that more solutions branch from the USA going home, putting their proxy/friend/lead partner back in its box as they do, than out of further presence.
Whether removing 14 or so layers in their leadership stack would be essential or even help the rest of the world I don’t know, but those left with the mess might think less unkindly of the country led by the remainder.
The self-declared “stable genius” appears not to be as bright as he claims. Despite Iran signaling upfront that any attack on them would result in retaliation against the Gulf Cooperation Council (GCC) countries and the closure of the Strait of Hormuz, he expressed surprise when events unfolded exactly as warned. His own generals, in past war-games, consistently concluded that any invading force would suffer a bloody nose, if not outright defeat. Yet this seems to be precisely where he is heading—into another forever war.
He is surrounded by ignorant sycophants who appear reluctant, if not fearful, to rein him in. Even more troubling is that those countries which might have the ability to restrain him—Spain being a rare exception—are too lily-livered to speak out in their national interest. The United Kingdom has even gone so far as to provide direct support, allowing so-called defensive bombing missions not only from Diego Garcia in the Indian Ocean but also from RAF Fairford on UK soil, while he is apparently unwilling to call out an alleged false flag operation on RAF Akrotiri in Cyprus.
Trump has treacherously acted in unison with the expansionist (from the Nile to the Euphrates) Netanyahu, without consulting any other U.S. allies. If the worst comes to pass—and that increasingly looks likely—oil production could be curtailed for many months, if not years. The consequences will be felt across the globe: in Asia, Africa, Europe, South America, and Australia. The United States, however, will suffer little beyond higher prices, as it is largely self-sufficient.
A madman now has the world by the throat, and apart from Israel and Russia, the rest of us will pay the price.
Thank you for the Churchillian paragraph.
I did that to show how ugly the “correct” formulation looks and reads.
There appears to be only one possible way Trump might be able to extricate himself and the US out of the mess he’s created which is to stop the extrajudicial killings of high ranking Iranian politicians and IRGC personnel by Netanyahu’s Israeli government; every one a potential Iranian negotiator.
However, given he has provided so much leeway for Israel already, there is deep quicksand in that direction through which he has few skills available to him to navigate
Over the 15 months he’s been in office, Trump has systematically burned every bridge and scorched every potential ally that might be able to provide some help and his options are few. Would he brave the wrath of Israel by stopping their carnage in Lebanon and Iran or halting their arms shipments?
It seems unlikely but on the other hand, besides running away, he doesn’t seem to have much choice.
It’s now time for the American Republican Party to move to have Trump removed from office on the grounds of incapacity. His rash actions are endangering the global economy and peace. They must be aware of the appalling mess he has created. They must finally acknowledge that Trump cannot be allowed to wield such power so recklessly.
One further reason Trump cannot get himself out of the mess he’s created: after he and Israel have repeatedly attacked negotiators, no sane Iranian official would want to personally participate in talks without a cast-iron guarantee of a level of protection that Trump almost certainly will not, even cannot, provide. It is analogous to blowing up a bridge and only then realising that he might wish to cross it.
Similarly, after Trump recklessly reneged on the JCPOA with Iran – not to mention all the other promises he’s broken to approximately everyone else who ever tried to deal with him – one has to wonder why any Iranian government would want to enter into peace talks. It may be worth taking personal risk and expending political capital for a longstanding treaty which will benefit one’s country; it is pointless to do all that for a worthless piece of paper which will be rejected next time Trump has a Twitter tantrum at 2am.
All a bit of a mess. Netanyahu is making hay while the sun shines, nothing to stop him.
But the US military planners have got a problem, what to do and how. Stick it out and just wait for Iran to weaken? Or go gung ho? Or send a nuke (you made me do it guys)?
Just wait is cool, OK so RoW screams blue murder but Trump says ‘help me out then’ – cue sullen silence. Trump is not really under much pressure so relax. Gung Ho is more vexed, how will your average grunt feel about putting boots on ground for Trumpy? I am not very brave and would be inclined to say ‘no mate’. Or send a nuke – just a little one – to save American lives etc etc. A bit controversial but that is Trump for you. Neither Russia nor China is going to stop him.
How will all this play come the Mid Terms. Option 1 is good, those Uropeens didn’t help out so I let them stew. Option 2 not so good, perhaps make a try, see how it goes and move to Option 3. Option 3 brings the screamers and banner wavers out but could be spun to good effect – if it works.
What would I do if I were Iran? How will it all look in two years time? I reckon there is a shortish window for compromise or it gets ugly. Pity a bit more intellect was not applied 5, 10, 15, 20, 30, 40 years ago.